S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% Wednesday morning after President Trump posted to Truth Social that Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim Tehran denied within hours — triggering a sharp risk-on move and sending WTI crude down 4% to $97, back below $100.^[1] Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.0%. The morning's equity story would be Nike, down 11% on a damaging Q4 guide-down, except that oil's slide back below $100 is the harder signal to explain away.

What's driving it

Trump posted overnight that Iran's president had requested a ceasefire and that the US would consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear."^[1] He also announced a five-day pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran's foreign ministry called it propaganda; the IRGC said the Strait remains fully under its control.^[2] Iran's supreme leader — not its president — holds final authority, which makes the sourcing of any alleged request immediately suspect.

Markets are pricing the claim, not the denial. A 4% crude selloff is not a hedge.^[3] That's a positioning unwind from a crowded long built on five weeks of Hormuz disruption. Even if a ceasefire materializes, analysts widely note that damage to Persian Gulf export infrastructure will take months to repair — the "scarcity floor" under prices doesn't disappear with a deal.

Adding to the backdrop: China and Pakistan jointly proposed a phased ceasefire framework on March 31 — a Hormuz reopening tied to a halt in US and Israeli strikes.^[4] Iran has not accepted it. The framework exists, but it has no signatures. Prediction markets put the odds of a ceasefire before June 30 at roughly 65%.

Trump has a primetime address scheduled for tonight, where the White House has promised an "important update on Iran."^[5] That speech is the session's defining event.

On the calendar

ADP March private payrolls — released at 8:15 AM: +62,000 versus the +40,000 consensus, with annual pay at +4.5%.^[11] Constructive, but the ADP-BLS divergence has been wide in recent months. The real labor market read is Friday's NFP, which releases while equity markets are closed for Good Friday and won't trade until Monday.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — 10:00 AM ET. First business day of the month brings the March read. Watch the prices sub-index: energy-cost pass-through and Hormuz-driven supply disruption have been visible in manufacturer surveys since February. A prices print above 75 — with the headline still in expansion — would put inflation expectations back in the conversation at the wrong moment.^[12]

Movers

Nike is down ~11% pre-market after reporting Q3 FY2026 results after Tuesday's close.^[7] EPS of $0.35 beat the $0.28 estimate; revenue of $11.28B edged the $11.23B consensus. The damage is in the guide: Q4 revenue expected to fall 2–4% versus expectations for a 1.9% gain, with Greater China projected down 20% next quarter and gross margin down 130 bps to 40.2% on tariff exposure.^[6] JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all issued downgrades this morning. The stock hit a 9-year low of $47.85 in after-hours trading.

RH is down ~19% after Q4 FY2025 results late Tuesday.^[8] Revenue of $842.6M grew 3.7% year-over-year but missed the $873.5M estimate; EPS of $1.53 badly missed the $2.22 consensus — a 31% negative surprise. Management guided for a 3% revenue decline next quarter. RH's exposure to discretionary housing-related spending makes it a clean read on the consumer; this quarter is not a reassuring one.^[9]

Earnings on deck

McCormick (MKC) — reported before the bell. Q1 EPS of $0.66 beat the $0.61 estimate; revenue of $1.87B beat the $1.79B consensus. Shares are down ~7% anyway: the company announced a merger with Unilever Foods that would create a roughly $20B-revenue combined entity. Investors are selling the leverage, not the quarter.^[15]

nCino (NCNO) — up ~20% pre-market after Q4 FY2026 results that included the fastest ACV growth in over four years, a 25x increase in banking AI adoption, and FY2027 guidance above consensus. The company also announced a $100M accelerated share repurchase.^[14][10]

Centessa Pharmaceuticals — up ~48% pre-market on a cash acquisition by Eli Lilly.

The setup

The session runs through tonight's primetime address. The market has priced an unverified ceasefire claim with a 0.7% equity rally and a 4% crude drop — a bet that needs Trump's speech to deliver something credible on Hormuz. If the speech is ambiguous or escalatory, this morning's gains reverse fast. ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM is the second variable: a prices sub-index above 75 complicates the Fed's "look through" posture and adds a hawkish data point to an already crowded morning. Nike's guidance cut is the session's quieter signal: tariff exposure and China deterioration are now in earnings, not analyst models.