President Trump posted late Thursday that he was extending the deadline for threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days—to April 6—citing ongoing talks that he described as "going very well."^[1] S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% in response, clawing back a fraction of Thursday's 1.7% decline. The Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed for nearly four weeks, remains closed.

What's driving it

Trump's Truth Social post is doing all the work this morning. The US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, and the Strait of Hormuz has been the chokepoint ever since—roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply running through a corridor that's been functionally shut.^[1] WTI touched $100 earlier this week before retreating toward $90 on peace-talk optimism; crude is still up roughly 60% from January.^[7]

Bond markets are pricing the inflation consequences. The 10-year yield sits near 4.39%, close to eight-month highs, and the market now assigns roughly a 50% probability to a Fed rate hike by December—a full reversal from the two-cut consensus that held three weeks ago. China compounded the picture overnight by opening a formal trade probe against the United States in retaliation for US tariffs, layering stagflation risk onto what was already a supply-shock environment.

The Nasdaq 100 is in correction territory, down more than 10% from its October 2025 peak. Thursday was the fifth consecutive losing week for major indexes. The VIX remains elevated near 27.

On the calendar

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, March) prints at 10:00 AM ET.^[4] The preliminary read was 55.5—a three-month low—with one-year inflation expectations at 3.4%. A meaningful downward revision would renew recession conversations. Fed Governor Barkin speaks at 10:00 AM and Governor Daly at 10:30 AM; any shift in their rate-path framing will be parsed closely given the repricing underway.

No PCE or GDP data today. The next PCE release is April 9.

Movers

Micron (MU) is attempting to stabilize after a six-session, 23% collapse driven by a Google announcement claiming its "TurboQuant" AI framework reduces the memory needed to run large language models—a direct demand-side threat to DRAM.^[2] Shares are little changed pre-market near $360 after the carnage; the stock now trades at the lowest forward P/E of any S&P 500 constituent.

Designer Brands (DBI) is down roughly 5% pre-market after Q4 results that beat a low EPS bar but came paired with full-year guidance citing a "complex tariff environment" and flat-to-down comparable sales.^[5]

Earnings on deck

Commercial Metals (CMC) reported Q2 FY2026 this morning: EPS $1.16 vs. $1.28 consensus (miss); revenue $2.13B, slight beat. Core EBITDA roughly doubled year-over-year, and the company raised its quarterly dividend 11% to $0.20/share.^[6] Shares are modestly lower pre-market on the EPS miss.

Designer Brands (DBI): Q4 EPS -$0.31 vs. -$0.48 consensus (beat on a low bar); full-year comparable sales -4.3%; FY2026 EPS guidance $0.28-$0.38 on flat-to-down sales. Stock -5.4% pre-market.^[5]

The setup

The session answers whether Trump's deadline extension generates durable relief or fades by midday. Iran's public messaging has been contradictory to Trump's optimism, and the Strait of Hormuz is the live variable—any headline suggesting talks are deteriorating reverses the overnight gain quickly. UMich sentiment at 10:00 AM is the secondary test: a print well below 55 confirms that the consumer is already pricing in a recession the hard data hasn't fully shown yet.