S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% at approximately 6,557, erasing a portion of Monday's 1.15% cash close as Iran's government doubled down on its denial of any negotiations with Washington, and European flash PMI data showed the sharpest input-cost surge in nearly two years — giving the market two fresh reasons to question Monday's relief rally.^[1][4]

What's driving it

Monday's euphoria rested on one thing: Trump's Truth Social post claiming "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran. Iran's foreign ministry — then its parliament speaker, then its state media — demolished that read in succession overnight.^[2] Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that "no negotiations have been held with the U.S.," calling the claim "fake news designed to suppress energy prices." A senior Iranian Foreign Ministry official did acknowledge receiving "points from the U.S. through mediators" via CBS News, but was explicit that this did not constitute talks and that Iran's position on the Strait of Hormuz is unchanged.

The Strait itself remains effectively closed. U.S. Central Command has confirmed at least a dozen underwater mines in the passageway, and Iran has warned it will mine the entire Persian Gulf if its power plants are struck. The five-day pause on strikes gives markets a narrow window, but the underlying arithmetic hasn't changed: roughly 20 million barrels per day ordinarily transit Hormuz, nearly 2,000 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, and the IEA has called this the worst energy shock since the combined crises of 1973 and 1979.^[1]

WTI climbed back above $91, partially recovering from Monday's 10% crash, as Iran's denial of talks brought the risk premium back into crude. Oil remains about $10 below last week's peak near $101 but $3 above the pre-Trump-post level from Monday morning.^[3]

On the calendar

The main domestic data point this morning is the S&P Global Flash US PMI for March, released at 9:45 a.m. ET. The preliminary read already circulating shows the Composite PMI at 53.5, up from 51.6 in February — but the internals are not clean.^[4] Manufacturing dropped back below the 50-expansion threshold to 49.8 (from 52.7), while the Manufacturing Output Index fell to 48.8 from 54.5. The headline composite was rescued entirely by services. More troublingly for the Fed: input costs surged at the sharpest pace in 23 months, with manufacturing input prices hitting a 31-month high, predominantly driven by tariffs. This is stagflationary signal structure — growth fine on the surface, manufacturing softening, costs accelerating — and it complicates any near-term rate-cut narrative. The 2-year yield's spike above the federal funds rate for the first time since November 2023 is the bond market's version of the same conclusion.^[8]

Fed speakers are not scheduled for meaningful remarks today. The next FOMC meeting is several weeks out.

Movers

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is the pre-market standout, up roughly 9–10% after the Financial Times reported overnight that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) has assembled a team to prepare for a potential full takeover of the investment bank.^[6] SMFG already owns approximately 20% of Jefferies after a $912 million stake increase in September. Jefferies shares had fallen about 36% year-to-date, giving SMFG a strategically compelling entry point; at roughly $8.2 billion market cap versus SMFG's ~$124 billion, a full acquisition is financially feasible. Any deal faces U.S. regulatory hurdles over foreign ownership of a financial institution, and the FT noted SMFG would hold off if management resists a depressed-price sale. Jefferies reports its own Q1 earnings tomorrow, March 25.

Apollo Global Management (APO) is down roughly 2% pre-market after an SEC filing disclosed that APO's flagship private credit fund received redemption requests totaling 11.2% of shares outstanding in Q1 — more than double the fund's 5% quarterly redemption cap.^[5] Apollo will limit withdrawals to less than half of all requests. The disclosure signals growing stress in private credit liquidity as rising rates and geopolitical uncertainty push institutional investors toward exits.

Concentrix (CNXC) is down approximately 11.5% pre-market, trading near its 52-week low of $29.25, after reporting Q1 FY2026 earnings this morning that delivered a marginal EPS miss.^[7] Revenue came in at $2.50 billion (+5.4% year-over-year), roughly in line with the $2.49 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $2.61 missed the $2.65 estimate by 1.3%, but the damage is in the margins: non-GAAP operating margin compressed to 11.8% from 13.6% a year ago, and free cash flow was negative $137 million versus negative $49 million in the prior-year quarter. Q2 revenue guidance of $2.47 billion came in 0.6% below consensus. The company reiterated full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11.78 at the midpoint, but the margin deterioration and worsening cash conversion are overriding the maintained outlook.

Earnings on deck

GameStop (GME) reports Q4 fiscal 2025 results after the close. Consensus estimates $0.37 EPS and $1.47 billion in revenue, which would represent 15% year-over-year revenue growth. The balance sheet remains the main story: GME ended Q3 with $8.8 billion in cash and approximately $519 million in Bitcoin. Options markets are pricing roughly an 8% move in either direction post-earnings. CEO Ryan Cohen's stated objective of using GameStop as an acquisition vehicle remains the operative narrative for investors watching the treasury deployment.

The setup

The session has a cleaner structure than yesterday's whipsaw: the diplomatic reprieve has a known five-day clock, Iran's denial is the base case, and the PMI data this morning will either confirm or challenge the stagflationary read the bond market has already priced. The ten-year at 4.39% and the VIX still above 25 are telling you the market is not convinced peace is imminent. Small caps are underperforming large caps in futures — the Russell 2000 futures down 1.0% versus the S&P's 0.6% — which makes sense: small caps benefit most from a lower oil/lower rates scenario, so they give back the most when that scenario is questioned. Watch WTI: if crude climbs back above $95 on Iran escalation headlines, expect another leg down in equities and another test of the 4.43% level on the ten-year.^[1][9]