US equity markets were closed for Good Friday, leaving crude oil, the dollar, and Treasuries as the session's only live instruments — and oil made full use of the vacancy. WTI touched a morning low of $71.52 on ceasefire signals before recovering to $112.06 at the abbreviated 1 PM NYMEX close as Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi refinery and Iran launched missiles at Gulf states, leaving the Hormuz supply-disruption premium intact. ^{[4] [5]} The March jobs report, released at 8:30 AM, printed at +178,000 — roughly triple the ~60,000 consensus — with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. ^[1] S&P 500 futures slipped 0.21% to 6,604. OPEC+ meets Sunday. Monday's open prices everything simultaneously.

What moved it

The oil round-trip is the session's defining event. WTI swung as low as $71.52 in morning trading — an intraday drawdown of roughly $28 from Wednesday's $100.12 settlement — as three ceasefire signals converged simultaneously: Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's president had requested a ceasefire, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's Foreign Affairs op-ed calling for a negotiated resolution in exchange for sanctions relief, and a China-Pakistan five-point framework proposing Hormuz reopening. ^[7] With no equity session to absorb the move, WTI's morning lows represented roughly $40 below Wednesday's settlement before the reversal.

That entire move retraced. Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, setting multiple units ablaze, ^[4] and Iran launched fresh missile barrages toward Israel and Gulf states. ^[5] None of the diplomatic signals represented an executable deal — they were opening positions from Iran's pragmatic wing, not a halt in IRGC operations. WTI recovered to close the abbreviated 1 PM NYMEX session at $112.06, matching Thursday's settlement level. ^[8]

Gold touched $4,910 intraday on the ceasefire optimism before settling at $4,703, a 1.68% decline as the attack resumption unwound the safe-haven bid. The morning-to-afternoon sequence compressed an entire geopolitical sentiment cycle into a half-day with no equity market to smooth it.

The March jobs report landed into the session's background. Nonfarm payrolls came in at +178,000 against a 59,000 consensus, with the unemployment rate ticking from 4.4% to 4.3%. ^{[2] [3]} Healthcare added 76,000; federal employment continued to contract. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month against a 0.3% expected — softer wages alongside a strong headline. The print captures a pre-energy-shock labor market; any Hormuz-related hiring drag won't appear until April or May data.

The dollar's 0.54% gain — EUR/USD at 1.1522 — reflects the jobs beat more than the oil reversal. The DXY has now recovered from its early-week weakness on the back of U.S. macro outperformance relative to a Europe facing energy-driven stagflation risk.

What to watch

OPEC+ meets Sunday, April 5. Standard Chartered flagged this week that the cartel may abandon voluntary output cuts — a potential supply increase landing on top of partial ceasefire optimism. ^[6] If confirmed, that combination would pressure WTI at Monday's open even without a diplomatic resolution.

Monday's equity open prices three overlapping inputs simultaneously: WTI ending at $112 on a day it reached $71.52 at the lows, ^[7] a 178K jobs beat with softer wages that arrived without equity-market response, and the OPEC+ meeting outcome. The sequencing and magnitude of Monday's reaction will depend on which of those three the market leads with.

The Iran ceasefire signal versus attack divergence is the live variable. Zarif's op-ed and the China-Pakistan framework represent Iran's diplomatic wing signaling flexibility; the overnight Mina al-Ahmadi strike and Gulf missile barrages represent the IRGC maintaining pressure. The market has no confirmed deal — only competing signals from competing factions. Any Easter weekend development on either track will gap Monday's open.

The next scheduled macro catalysts are ISM Services for March and weekly jobless claims, both printing Thursday, April 9.