The S&P 500 closed up 0.83% at 6,583, recovering from steep overnight losses after Trump's Wednesday primetime address — announcing a 21-day extension of Operation Epic Fury and vowing to "hit them extremely hard" — erased two sessions of ceasefire-rally gains across Asian and European markets before U.S. buyers stepped in. ^[2] WTI crude surged 11.9% to $112.06, its largest single-session move since the Strait of Hormuz closure began. Technology led the recovery, carrying the Nasdaq up 1.34% to 21,879 while the Dow lagged at +0.35%. The 10-year yield dipped 1 basis point to 4.31%, holding well below levels that would signal an inflation breakout.

What moved it

Trump's address Wednesday night was the session's defining event. ^[5] He announced a 21-day extension of Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran's naval and missile infrastructure, showed no pathway to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and offered no ceasefire timeline — a direct reversal of the diplomatic signals markets had been pricing over the prior two sessions. Wall Street's initial read was unified: ING called it "back to escalation," and Asian markets opened hard lower (Nikkei –2.4%, Kospi –4.5%). U.S. futures were down 1–1.5% pre-open before recovering.

The oil move carries its own specifics. WTI briefly traded at a premium to Brent — a rarity — as traders paid up for U.S. crude over seaborne barrels still subject to Hormuz disruption. ^[1] The strait's transit count stands near zero, representing roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade. U.S. average retail gasoline crossed $4/gallon today for the first time since 2022. ^[8]

Sector scoreboard

Technology led with a 2.33% gain. Real estate (+1.91%) and industrials (XLI +1.26%) also outperformed, the latter likely reflecting defense and infrastructure names. Consumer discretionary fell 0.76%, weighed by Tesla and the broader headwind of $4/gallon gasoline on household spending.

Movers

Tesla fell approximately 5.4% after Q1 2026 delivery results missed consensus. ^[3] The company reported 358,023 deliveries against an estimated 365,645, with production of 408,386 — leaving over 50,000 vehicles in inventory, a departure from its historically tight production-to-delivery model that the market read as a margin flag. ^[6] Energy storage deployments fell to 8.8 GWh, down 15% year-over-year and down 38% from Q4 2025's record 14.2 GWh. Full Q1 earnings are scheduled for April 22.

Microsoft and Nvidia each gained roughly 1%, with the broader AI and semiconductor complex catching inflows as investors rotated out of macro-sensitive cyclicals.

After the bell

RH reported Q4 FY2026 results after the close with a double miss. ^[7] Revenue came in at $842.6M vs. estimates near $873M; adjusted EPS of $1.53 missed the $2.22 consensus by 31%. Q1 guidance called for revenue down 2–4% year-over-year with adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.5–6.5%. Management cited roughly $30M in tariff-related order disruptions and $10M from weather. The stock, which closed regular trading up 6% at $139.98, fell approximately 19% in extended trading to around $114.

What to watch

ISM Services for March lands Thursday morning — consensus is around 53.0, and any signs of services-side price acceleration above the manufacturing PMI's already-elevated print would complicate the Fed's rate-path calculus.

Weekly jobless claims also print Thursday, where the trailing trend has been running near the top of the pre-pandemic normal range.

The Iran situation remains the primary live variable. Any signal from the State Department, Gulf states, or backchannel reports on Hormuz negotiations will move oil and equities in opposite directions simultaneously, given the energy/equity split in today's tape.

Tesla's April 22 earnings report will be the first hard look at whether the delivery inventory buildup is a one-quarter anomaly or a structural margin problem.

The WTI/Brent premium relationship bears watching — if WTI reverts to a discount, it would signal physical markets are finding workarounds to the Hormuz closure, which the oil tape has not yet priced.