The S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 6,575.32 on the first trading session of Q2, as Trump's announcement of indirect ceasefire negotiations with Iran pulled WTI crude below $100 per barrel and triggered a rotation out of energy and into cyclicals, technology, and health care. ^[4] The Nasdaq Composite led at +1.16% to 21,840.95; the Dow added 0.48% to 46,565.74 and the Russell 2000 +0.64% to 2,512.37. ADP reported 62,000 private sector jobs added in March — well above the ~40,000 consensus — reinforcing a soft-landing read heading into Friday's NFP. ^[3] The session's clearest outlier was Nike, down 15.5% to $44.62 on guidance flagging a 20% revenue decline in Greater China and $1.5 billion in full-year tariff costs — its lowest close since 2015. ^[2]

What moved it

Trump posted on Truth Social that Iranian President Pezeshkian had requested a ceasefire; Iran's Foreign Ministry called the characterization "false and baseless." ^[5] The contradiction mattered less than the confirmation underneath it: Axios and CNN both reported that back-channel negotiations via VP Vance are ongoing, structured around a 15-point U.S. plan requiring Hormuz to reopen and Iran to roll back its nuclear program. Trump separately told reporters the U.S. could wrap up its campaign "in two or three weeks," and a primetime presidential address on Iran was scheduled for 9:00 PM ET.

Oil's response was the market's transmission mechanism. WTI dropped roughly 1.4% to near $100, which compressed energy sector margins and simultaneously relieved the inflation premium embedded in everything from consumer staples costs to industrial input prices. Ten-year yields moved in the opposite direction — up roughly nine basis points to ~4.30% — consistent with the ADP beat reducing near-term rate cut probability rather than with a flight-to-safety dynamic.

The ADP print itself was the session's second leg. The 62,000 figure came in nearly 60% above estimates, with education and health services leading gains (+58,000) while trade, transport, and utilities shed 58,000 — a number consistent with early supply chain disruption from the Hormuz closure showing up in labor data. Friday's NFP releases while equity markets are closed for Good Friday, compressing the full reaction to Monday's open.

Intel provided the largest company-specific catalyst: the company announced it will repurchase the 49% stake in its Irish Fab 34 facility from Apollo Global Management for $14.2 billion, clarifying its fab ownership structure and signaling confidence in its 18A process node ramp at a moment when AI infrastructure demand is making semiconductor capacity commitment strategically valuable. ^[8] INTC surged roughly 10%.

Sector scoreboard

Consumer discretionary led all sectors at roughly +3.1%, driven by lower oil prices reducing input and transportation costs and broad risk-on beta. Financials gained ~2.1% as improved growth expectations lifted bank stocks. Technology added ~2.0%, paced by Intel's 10% move and continued momentum from the Nvidia-Marvell partnership announced Tuesday. Health care rose ~1.9%, with Eli Lilly contributing roughly +5% after the FDA approved Foundayo, its oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill — the second oral GLP-1 to reach the U.S. market after Novo Nordisk's.

Energy was the mirror image, losing between 3.7% and 4.5% as lower crude prices compressed upstream margins. Chevron fell 3.7% and was the Dow's second-largest drag. Consumer staples were the only other sector in the red, down fractionally. Nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher. ^[1]

Movers

Nike fell 15.5% to $44.62 on volume roughly five times its 90-day average. The Q3 results themselves were a beat — EPS $0.35 vs. $0.28 expected, revenue $11.28 billion vs. $11.24 billion estimated — but the guidance overwhelmed the headline: Q4 revenue guided down 2–4% against Street expectations of +1.9%, Greater China revenue expected to fall ~20% next quarter, and tariff costs flagged at $1.5 billion for the full fiscal year. At least six analysts cut price targets Wednesday. ^[6]

Intel's 10% gain was the session's largest large-cap upside mover. The Apollo fab buyback eliminates a dilution overhang and removes ambiguity about Intel's long-term commitment to domestic manufacturing at a moment when the CHIPS Act and AI compute demand are both pushing in the direction of U.S. fab capacity.

What to watch

Trump's Iran address and overnight reaction. Any specifics on ceasefire terms — particularly a Hormuz timeline — is the catalyst that sets Thursday's open. Iran's denial of the ceasefire request leaves the situation unstable in both directions.

Tesla Q1 deliveries (expected Thursday, April 2). The first major Q1 corporate data point. Tesla is down roughly 20% year-to-date; a delivery miss extends that and narrows the window before the April 28 earnings call.

NFP on a closed Friday. March non-farm payrolls print at 8:30 AM ET on April 3, while equity markets are shut for Good Friday. Traders have until Thursday's close to position. The number drops into a closed market and the full equity reaction gets compressed into Monday's open — either a gap up or gap down depending on the print and whatever happens over the long weekend.

April 6 Hormuz deadline. Trump's ultimatum expires in five days. The market's current positioning — WTI near $100, VIX near 24, S&P above 6,500 — reflects meaningful ceasefire optimism. A deadline miss without a credible off-ramp reopens the $110+ Brent scenario.

SpaceX IPO filing. SpaceX confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC Wednesday, reportedly targeting ~$75 billion raised at a ~$1.75 trillion valuation. ^[7] The filing will pressure private market valuations for AI infrastructure peers and could shift institutional allocation discussions heading into Q2 earnings season.