The S&P 500 surged 2.91% to 6,528.52 — its best single session since May 2025 — after Iran's president signaled readiness to end the war and the Wall Street Journal reported Trump is prepared to accept a ceasefire even if the Strait of Hormuz stays partially closed, triggering the first credible off-ramp in 32 days of conflict. ^[1] The Nasdaq gained 3.83% to 21,590.63, the Dow 2.49% to 46,341.51, and the Russell 2000 3.41% to 2,496.37. WTI slipped 1.41% to $101.43 on peace hopes but remains above $100; the VIX dropped 17.5% to 25.25, its lowest in three weeks but still well above pre-conflict norms. Despite the rally, the S&P ended Q1 down roughly 5.3% — its worst quarter since 2022 — leaving the market priced for a ceasefire that hasn't happened yet. ^[2]

What moved it

The session turned on two geopolitical data points hitting within hours of each other. Iranian President Pezeshkian stated Iran is prepared to end hostilities "if the required conditions are met, especially the necessary guarantees to prevent a recurrence of aggression." The Wall Street Journal reported separately that Trump told aides he is open to ending U.S. military operations even without a full Hormuz resolution. Together, they constitute the first mutual de-escalation signal of the conflict — which has killed thousands, paralyzed more than 90% of Strait traffic, and driven gasoline to a national average of $4.018 per gallon for the first time since August 2022. ^[8]

The AI catalyst amplified the move. Nvidia announced a $2 billion equity stake in Marvell Technology and launched "NVLink Fusion," a framework integrating Marvell's custom silicon and optical interconnects directly into Nvidia's AI factory infrastructure stack. ^[3] The deal reactivated AI infrastructure enthusiasm that had been dormant since February.

A secondary tailwind came from February JOLTS, which showed job openings fell to 6.88 million — down 358,000 from January and the largest monthly drop since September 2024 — with the hiring rate at its lowest since April 2020. ^[7] Weak labor data reduces Fed rate-hike pressure; traders treated it as such. Quarter-end rebalancing flows into equities likely amplified the magnitude of the move.

Sector scoreboard

Communication services led all sectors at roughly +4.5%, paced by Alphabet's 5% jump on the unveiling of a new AI video generation product. Technology followed at ~+4%, driven by the Nvidia-Marvell deal and broad semiconductor recovery.

Industrials outperformed the index at ~+3.3%, with Caterpillar +6% and Boeing +5.2% — cyclical names most exposed to war-related supply chain disruption saw the sharpest reversals on ceasefire hopes.

Energy was the tape's clearest loser, falling 1.85% as lower oil prices compressed upstream margins. Utilities, the prior session's defensive anchor, shed ~0.8% as capital rotated out of havens. Ten of eleven sectors closed higher; roughly 440 of 500 S&P 500 names finished in the green.

Movers

Marvell Technology surged 12.8% to $99.05 on volume 194% above its three-month average after the Nvidia investment and NVLink Fusion partnership were announced. ^[4] Nvidia itself rose 5.56% to $174.36.

Caterpillar added 6.0% and Boeing 5.2% as the de-escalation trade swept through names with the most direct exposure to war-related supply chain disruption and deferred global infrastructure spending. Neither move was company-specific; both were pure geopolitical beta.

After the bell

Nike reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results after the close. ^[5] EPS came in at $0.35, beating the $0.28–$0.29 consensus, on revenue of $11.28 billion versus the $11.24 billion estimate. The headline beat obscured the margin story: gross margin fell 1.3 percentage points to 40.2%, with management citing higher North American tariffs as the primary driver. Net income declined 34.5% year-over-year to $520 million; operating profit fell 29.8%. Nike flagged $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs for the full fiscal year. North America revenue of $5.03 billion was fractionally below estimates; Greater China at $1.62 billion beat. NKE fell approximately 4.2% in after-hours trading to ~$50.59. ^[6]

What to watch

April 6 Hormuz deadline. Trump's extended ultimatum expires in six days. Any credible ceasefire framework moves crude and equities more than any scheduled data release; continued silence puts $110+ Brent back as the base case.

Tesla Q1 deliveries (expected April 2). The first major Q1 corporate data point. Tesla is down roughly 20% year-to-date; a miss on deliveries extends that.

Good Friday close (April 3). Markets close early Thursday and are fully shut Friday. A compressed four-day trading week means positioning for whatever unfolds over the April 6 deadline gets done by Thursday afternoon. Overnight geopolitical developments will gap the open Monday.

PCE inflation (Friday, April 4 — markets closed). February's PCE print releases while equities are shut. The market will open Monday with that data already in the public domain, which compresses the reaction window and could sharpen Monday's gap move in either direction.

Dollar index near 100. The DXY tested below 100 intraday for the first time since mid-March, as the war premium underpinning the dollar eroded. ^[9] A sustained break below 100 would signal the market is pricing material de-escalation; a snap back above 100.50 would indicate the peace-talk bounce is being faded.