The S&P 500 fell 0.27% to 6,606.49 Thursday, recovering from a session low three times that deep, after Iran struck Qatari LNG production facilities and Saudi energy infrastructure — pushing Brent crude above $119 intraday — before Israeli PM Netanyahu announced that Israel would assist the U.S. in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, cutting crude by roughly $10 from its peak and allowing equities to claw back most of the loss. ^{[1] [4]} Iran's strikes hit an estimated 17% of Qatar's LNG output; Goldman Sachs estimated the near-closure of the Strait has already removed approximately 16 million barrels per day from global flows — the largest supply disruption since the 1970s. ^[5] The Dow dropped 0.44%, the Nasdaq 0.28%. The Russell 2000 was the session's clearest outlier: down more than 1% at the open, closing up 0.65% — the full reversal driven entirely by the Hormuz signal. ^[2] Wednesday's FOMC hawkish hold — one cut left in the dot plot, core PCE forecast raised to 2.7% — left the market with no rate-relief cushion to absorb $119 Brent. ^[12]

What moved it

Iran struck Qatari LNG facilities — cutting roughly 17% of Qatar's output — and targeted Saudi energy infrastructure, the latest escalation in a conflict that began February 28 with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran's South Pars gas field. ^[1] Brent crude hit $119.00 at the session high, its highest level since the conflict began; WTI briefly approached $100. Analysts no longer dismiss $200 oil as implausible. ^[13]

Netanyahu's Hormuz announcement mid-afternoon was the session's turn. Israel committed to assisting the U.S. in reopening the strait, which Goldman Sachs estimates has been effectively closed to roughly 16 million barrels per day of global oil flow. ^[4] Brent fell from $119 to near $108; WTI settled below $95. No new supply entered the market — the price move was a probability adjustment on reopening timeline, not a physical change.

The Fed's Wednesday decision compounded the setup. With February PPI at +0.7% month-over-month and the dot plot retaining exactly one 2026 cut, there was no policy flexibility to absorb the inflation signal from $119 Brent. Macquarie began flagging the possibility that the next Fed move could be a hike rather than a cut — a view not yet priced into rates markets but gaining more audible mention in research. ^[12]

Sector scoreboard

Energy (XLE) was the only sector that closed cleanly green. ExxonMobil added 0.4%, Chevron 1.4%, Canadian Natural Resources 2.9%. Energy is up roughly 25% year-to-date. ^[3]

Materials (XLB) was the worst-performing sector, pulled lower by gold miners. When Brent pulled back on the Hormuz announcement, the safe-haven bid that had lifted gold came off simultaneously with a rise in real yields — two of gold's key supports unwound in the same hour. Newmont fell 7–9%. ^{[7] [8]}

Industrials (XLI) fell roughly 1%, with Boeing (–2.3%) and GE Aerospace (–3.2%) among the larger drags — energy cost and risk-off sentiment weighed on capital goods. Financials (XLF) dropped approximately 1.2% on stagflation repricing. Technology (XLK) was nearly flat, cushioned by AI-driven names. Utilities (XLU) held in as defensive rotation continued.

The advance/decline line has been in a downtrend since the S&P's February highs. The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average fell further Thursday, confirming that the index-level recovery masks continued deterioration beneath the surface.

Movers

Newmont (NEM) fell 7–9%, the largest percentage decline among large caps. Gold's $273-per-ounce drop (–5.6% to $4,588) passed through to miners at an amplified rate given fixed operating costs; there was no company-specific catalyst. ^[8]

Rivian (RIVN) gained 3.8% after Uber announced plans to invest up to $1.25 billion through 2031 to deploy Rivian's R2 SUVs as robotaxis — a deal that provides both a capital commitment and visible demand at a point when Rivian's order trajectory had been a persistent concern for the stock. ^[11]

After the bell

FedEx (FDX) — Fiscal Q3 2026: Revenue $24.0B vs. $23.43B estimated. Adjusted EPS $5.25 vs. $4.16 estimated — a $1.09 beat. Full-year FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $19.30–$20.10 from the prior range of $17.80–$19.00. Stock +1.4% after hours. ^{[9] [10]} Volume and pricing held; the guidance raise is not a low-bar beat.

What to watch

Overnight Gulf activity: Netanyahu's Hormuz announcement moved markets but changed nothing physical. Traders will watch for any Iranian response to the stated coalition commitment and any follow-on strikes on Saudi, UAE, or Qatari infrastructure before Friday's open.

FedEx at the open Friday: The +$1.09 EPS beat and guidance raise moved shares +1.4% in extended trading. The open is the first read on whether the market extends credit to a bellwether that delivered, in an environment where macro anxiety tends to override individual results. ^[9]

Brent crude: The $108 close represents an $11 retreat from the intraday high. Whether it holds below $110 — the level that Wednesday's FOMC press conference used as a reference point for inflation risk — is the weekend's key positioning variable. Any fresh infrastructure strike reopens the $119 print as a floor, not a ceiling.

Treasury yields: At 4.28%, the 10-year is the highest it has been in over a year. Each additional basis point narrows the Fed's ability to absorb softening labor data without triggering a stagflation dilemma the dot plot is not currently calibrated for. ^[6]

Micron (MU) Friday: Shares fell 3.7–5.6% Thursday despite a Q2 beat across every metric — revenue $23.86B vs. $20.07B estimated, EPS $12.20 vs. $9.31 — as the company's disclosed $25B+ FY2026 capex raised concerns about spending sustainability. Friday's price action determines whether the AI memory thesis absorbs the capital intensity concern or whether the stock continues repricing the cost of staying competitive in HBM4.