The S&P 500 gained 0.25% to 6,716.09 Tuesday — a second consecutive advance after last week's four-month lows — as a guidance raise from Delta Air Lines supplied the session's clearest proof that travel demand is absorbing the oil shock, and FOMC-eve caution kept everything else from moving much. ^{[2] [1]} The Fed's two-day meeting opened with markets pricing a 98.9% probability of a hold; WTI held around $93, within its post-Monday range; and the VIX settled near 23.51, continuing its retreat from Friday's 27.19. ^[9] Industrials, Energy, and Financials led; Communication Services was the lone sector in the red.

What moved it

Delta raised Q1 2026 total revenue growth guidance to 7–9%, up from the prior 5–7% range, at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference. CEO Ed Bastian cited a record booking pace — eight of Delta's top-ten sales days ever have occurred in this quarter — and held Q1 EPS guidance at $0.50–$0.90 despite a $400M fuel cost headwind from elevated jet fuel. ^[4] The market read that as the demand-resilience data point it had been waiting for: if the flag-carrier of U.S. air travel can absorb a $400M cost shock without cutting its earnings range, consumer spending on high-ticket discretionary items is not rolling over.

The transmission was immediate and broad. American Airlines rose 3.5%, United 3.2%, Southwest 2.2%. Cruise lines and booking platforms caught the same bid. ^[6] The move carried Industrials to 0.51% and lifted Consumer Discretionary to 0.37%, making travel the sector story of the session.

The broader macro backdrop stayed in holding pattern. The FOMC meeting began today; the rate decision and revised dot plot land Wednesday afternoon. The hold is not debated. What the market is waiting for is the median 2026 dot and the committee's updated PCE inflation forecast — the two figures that will either validate or compress the market's already-thin cut expectations. ^[10]

On Iran, Israel reportedly killed a senior Iranian security official Tuesday; Iran struck a UAE natural gas facility in response. Neither event disrupted Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, and WTI held its post-Monday range around $93. The war backdrop is not easing — escalation risk is real — but the market's base case is containment rather than closure. ^[9]

Sector scoreboard

Energy led at +0.55%, which may seem counterintuitive given WTI's continued drift lower from above $100. The logic: at $93, crude is stabilizing at a level that preserves producer economics without re-triggering the stagflation trade. XLE had given back meaningful ground from its war-peak; Tuesday's move was partial recovery rather than a new directional bet. ^[3]

Financials (+0.54%) and Industrials (+0.51%) tracked the risk-on tone, consistent with lower yields and the read-through from Delta's demand commentary to broader economic resilience. Technology added 0.41%, with semiconductor and AI infrastructure names carrying forward Monday's GTC momentum.

Communication Services (-0.09%) was the sole decliner. Meta fell 0.8% as the post-restructuring bounce from Monday faded. The sector's advertising revenue sensitivity makes it the most direct casualty of a sustained consumer pullback scenario — the Delta data helped, but Communication Services investors are pricing a longer lag.

Movers

Delta Air Lines surged 5.23%, its largest single-session move this quarter, on the guidance lift. ^[5] This was sector-wide, but Delta set the price; the stock's magnitude was the signal that gave the rest of the airline group permission to follow.

SoFi Technologies closed -1.47% at $17.37 after dropping as much as 6% intraday. Muddy Waters Research published a short report alleging SoFi has at least $312M in unrecorded debt, a true personal loan charge-off rate of ~6.1% versus the reported 2.89%, and EBITDA overstated by approximately $950M. ^{[7] [8]} Volume hit 157.5M shares — roughly 167% of the 90-day average. SoFi did not comment. The intraday recovery from the low reflects short-report skepticism, not exoneration; the allegations will drive follow-on analyst work.

After the bell

BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ): Q4 EPS $0.96, beat by $0.04. Revenue $5.44B vs. $5.54B estimate, a miss. FY2026 EPS guidance $4.40–$4.60, below the $4.66 consensus midpoint. Stock -4% after hours.

Campbell's (CPB): Q2 EPS $0.48 vs. $0.55 estimate, a miss. Revenue $2.5B vs. $2.6B estimate, a miss. FY2026 EPS guidance cut to $2.15–$2.25 from $2.40–$2.55; net sales expected to decline 1–2%. Stock -5% after hours. The cut adds to the cost-margin squeeze narrative building across Consumer Staples this quarter.

What to watch

FOMC decision and dot plot Wednesday (2:00 PM ET): The hold is consensus. The median 2026 dot and the committee's revised PCE inflation projection are the live variables. If the dot plot implies fewer than one cut for 2026 — or if the inflation forecast rises toward 3% — cut expectations compress further. This is also Powell's final scheduled press conference before Kevin Warsh's anticipated confirmation.

Micron (MU) earnings Wednesday after close: Consensus expects Q2 EPS of $8.66–$9.21 on revenue of $19.1–$19.9B, against Micron's own guidance of $18.7B revenue and $8.42 EPS at the midpoint. ^[13] The print is the first major semiconductor earnings post-GTC and the first direct test of whether AI memory demand is tracking Jensen Huang's $1 trillion forecast.

Iran / Hormuz escalation: Today's UAE strike and Israel's reported kill of an Iranian security figure raise the escalation ladder. Hormuz traffic is open; any interdiction restarts the oil move Monday's session partially unwound.

Kevin Warsh confirmation: Powell's final press conference is Wednesday. Any Senate calendar movement on Warsh creates a forward policy layer the market has begun pricing but not resolved.