The S&P 500 gained 1.01% to 6,699.38 Monday — snapping a three-week losing streak — after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering WTI's largest single-session decline since the conflict began. ^[4] The Aframax Karachi became the first non-Iranian cargo vessel to transit the strait in weeks; an Indian-flagged LPG carrier followed. ^[6] WTI fell approximately 4.8% to $93.80, unwinding the war premium that had pushed crude to $102 at its intraday peak last week. The simultaneous Nvidia GTC keynote, where Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in AI chip revenue through 2027, added a second upward impulse concentrated in technology. ^[3]

What moved it

Bessent spoke from Paris on Squawk Box, stating flatly: "The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we've let that happen to supply the rest of the world." He predicted oil would fall "much lower than $80" as shipments normalize. ^[7] Vessel tracking confirmed the Aframax Karachi, carrying Abu Dhabi crude, transited within hours. That single data point — ships moving — closed roughly two-thirds of the Hormuz war premium embedded in crude since the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes.

The transmission to equities was direct. Lower oil reduces the probability path that March CPI and April PCE reaccelerate inflation enough to push the first Fed cut beyond December. The 10-year yield fell 6 basis points to 4.23%, reversing part of the 13 basis point spike from the prior week. ^[10] For a market that had repriced first-cut expectations from June to October over 15 trading sessions, Monday was a partial unwind of that positioning.

The two-driver structure matters. The oil signal was macro relief; the GTC keynote was a sector catalyst. They ran in the same direction on the same day, producing a broad rally rather than a rotation. Roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 components finished higher.

Sector scoreboard

Technology led with an estimated 1.7% gain, powered by the GTC event and semiconductor momentum. Semiconductors in particular — Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom — drove elevated volume as investors priced the $1 trillion AI chip forecast into hardware valuations. Communication services outperformed alongside tech as Meta rallied on workforce restructuring news.

Industrials (+1.3%) and financials (+1.3%) tracked the broader risk-on move, consistent with lower yields reducing discount pressure and easing growth-slowdown fears.

Energy was the only sector in the red, down approximately 0.3%. The same Hormuz news that lifted every other sector cut directly through upstream producers, reversing the trade that had added 27% to XLE year-to-date. Exxon and Chevron fell. The energy sector's underperformance was the arithmetic inverse of its prior three-week outperformance.

Movers

Nvidia rose 1.65% to $183.22 on volume roughly 18% above its 90-day average as Jensen Huang's GTC keynote unveiled Blackwell Ultra, the Vera Rubin platform (described as 10x performance-per-watt over Grace Blackwell), and a $1 trillion combined AI chip revenue forecast through 2027 — double last year's projection. ^{[5] [8]} The stock's move was measured relative to the announcement's scale; Huang has trained the market to treat GTC keynotes as events requiring subsequent digestion rather than immediate re-rating.

Meta gained 2.33% to $627.43 after Reuters reported the company may cut approximately 20% of its workforce — a larger reduction than its prior 11,000-job round. The market read the news as cost discipline, not distress, consistent with how it has priced recent technology workforce reductions. Salesforce led the Dow 30 with a 2.86% gain, carried by enterprise software's correlation to AI infrastructure optimism from the GTC event.

What to watch

FOMC decision Wednesday: The hold is priced at near-certainty, but the revised dot plot is the live variable. The committee is expected to raise its PCE inflation projections and cut GDP estimates. Powell's characterization of the oil shock — transitory relief vs. structurally unresolved — will determine whether the market's December cut-pricing holds or shifts earlier.

Hormuz normalization pace: Monday's tanker transit was one ship. The oil market needs a pattern before it fully abandons the war premium. CENTCOM posture and Iranian response to resumed traffic are the next data points; any interdiction or renewed closure threat reverses Monday's move.

Micron (MU) earnings Wednesday after close: Consensus expects EPS of $8.60 (+451% year-over-year) on revenue of $19.1 billion. The print is the first major semiconductor earnings since GTC and will test whether AI memory demand is tracking Huang's $1 trillion forecast or lagging it.

March CPI (due April): Monday's rally was partly a repricing of inflation expectations. If WTI stabilizes below $95 heading into the CPI reference month, the Fed's stagflation calculus softens. If Hormuz traffic stalls again, the repricing reverses.

Kevin Warsh confirmation progress: Powell's term ends in May. Any committee vote scheduling or new Warsh testimony introduces a forward policy layer that the market has begun pricing but hasn't resolved.